#39 - The Jack Donaghy Brainstorming Method
There are no bad ideas in brainstorming, Lemon
There’s a lot to be learned from Jack Donaghy, the debonair network executive played by Alec Baldwin on 30 Rock. One example is the importance of proper evening attire. Another is that there are no bad ideas in brainstorming.
Brainstorming helps counter man-with-a-hammer-syndrome. To the man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail. Some problems can be solved with a hammer, others require pliers or a dogleg reamer. The more tools you know how to use, the more effectively you can solve problems.
The same is true of ideas. Like a hammer, no one idea will serve you well in all situations. A lack of imagination can get you into trouble.
The attack on Pearl Harbor illustrates the dangers of singular beliefs in an unpredictable world. As FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver notes in The Signal and the Noise, Hawaii was home to over 80,000 Japanese nationals and sabotage was the primary security concern in the lead-up to Pearl Harbor. As a result, airplanes were parked wingtip to wingtip and battleships were arranged in a tight row on the thinking that it would be easier to secure one big target against saboteurs. Of course, this made American planes and ships easy targets for Japanese bombers when the threat ultimately came from the air and not the ground.
Surprise happens. History is replete with events like Pearl Harbor and September 11th. Just because we haven’t seen something before doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Returning to The Signal and the Noise:
There is a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable. The contingency we have not considered seriously looks strange; what looks strange is thought improbable; what is improbable need not be considered seriously.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We should expect surprises. This is where Donaghy’s advice comes into play. Open mindedness - even seemingly bad ideas - can yield better predictions.
Knowledge can be categorized into three buckets:
Known knows: Things you know you know. The sky is blue. Montpelier is the capital of Vermont. Chipotle is delicious.
Known unknowns: These are risks you’re aware of, but can’t be certain about. When will the next big earthquake hit San Francisco for example.
Unknown unknowns: Things you don’t know you don’t know.
Nasty surprises tend to lurk in the unknown unknown bucket. However, thinking about an issue shifts it from an unknown unknown to a known unknown. Progress. This is why Donaghy’s “no bad ideas” is important. Things that seem ludicrous or impossible happen regularly. Tom Brady is a Tampa Bay Buccaneer after all.
Returning to Nate Silver:
The more eagerly we commit to scrutinizing and testing our theories, the more readily we accept that our knowledge of the world is uncertain, the more willingly we acknowledge that perfect prediction is impossible, the less we will live in fear of our failures, and the more liberty we will have to let our minds flow freely. By knowing more about what we don’t know, we may get a few more predictions right.
Or, as Jack Donaghy would say, there are no bad ideas in brainstorming, Lemon.
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